Why Is The Current American Government Shutdown Different (as well as More Intractable)?
Shutdowns have become a recurring element of US politics β but the current situation appears especially difficult to resolve due to political dynamics and deep-seated animosity among both major parties.
Some government services face a temporary halt, and about 750,000 people likely to be placed on unpaid leave as both political parties can't agree on a spending bill.
Votes aimed at ending the deadlock have repeatedly failed, with little visibility on a clear resolution path this time because each side β as well as the President β perceive advantages in digging in.
Here are several key factors in which things feel different currently.
1. For Democrats, it's about Trump β not just healthcare
Democratic supporters have insisted for months that their party more forcefully fights the Trump administration. Currently the party leadership have an opportunity to demonstrate their responsiveness.
In March, Senate leader was fiercely criticised after supporting GOP budget legislation and averting a shutdown in the spring. Now he's digging in.
This is a chance for Democrats to show they can take back some control from a presidency that has moved aggressively on its agenda.
Opposing the GOP budget proposal comes with political risk that the wider public may become impatient as the dispute drags on and impacts accumulate.
The Democrats are leveraging the shutdown fight to highlight concerns about expiring health insurance subsidies together with Republican-approved government healthcare cuts affecting low-income populations, both facing public opposition.
They are also trying to curtail the President's use of his executive powers to cancel or delay funding approved by Congress, a practice demonstrated in international assistance and various federal programs.
2. For Republicans, it's an opportunity
The President along with a senior aide have made little secret their perspective that they smell a chance to advance further the cutbacks in government employment implemented during in the Republican's second presidency so far.
The President himself said last week that the government closure had afforded him a "unique chance", adding he intended to reduce funding for "Democrat agencies".
The White House stated they would face a "challenging responsibility" of mass lay-offs to keep essential government services operating if the shutdown continued. An administration spokesperson described this as "budgetary responsibility".
The scope of the potential lay-offs is still uncertain, but the White House has been in discussions with federal budget authorities, the budgeting office, which is headed by the administration's budget director.
The budget director has previously declared the halting of government financial support for regions governed by the opposition party, such as NYC and Illinois' largest city.
3. There's little trust on either side
While previous shutdowns have been characterised by late-night talks among political opponents in an effort to get federal operations, there appears to be little of the same spirit for compromise presently.
Conversely, animosity prevails. Political tensions persisted recently, with Republicans and Democrats blaming each other for causing the impasse.
House Speaker from the majority party, charged opposition members of not being serious about negotiating, and holding out over a deal "for electoral protection".
Simultaneously, the opposition's chief made similar charges at the other side, saying that a Republican promise to discuss healthcare subsidies once the government reopens cannot be trusted.
The President himself has escalated tensions by posting a controversial AI-generated image featuring the opposition leader along with another senior opposition figure, where the representative is depicted with a large Mexican-style sombrero and facial hair.
The representative with party colleagues called this racist, which was denied by the Vice-President.
4. The US economy is fragile
Analysts expect approximately two-fifths of the federal workforce β over 800,000 workers β to face furlough due to the government closure.
This will reduce consumer expenditure β and also have wider ramifications, as environmental permitting, delayed intellectual property processing, payments to contractors and other kinds of federal operations tied to business cease functioning.
The closure additionally introduces new uncertainty into an economy already being roiled from multiple factors including tariffs, earlier cuts to government spending, enforcement actions and artificial intelligence.
Economic forecasters project that it could shave as much as 0.2 percentage points from national economic expansion for each week it lasts.
However, economic activity generally rebounds most of that lost activity after a shutdown ends, as it would after disruption after major environmental events.
That could be one reason why the stock market has appeared largely unfazed by the current stand-off.
On the other hand, experts indicate should the President carries out proposed significant workforce reductions, the damage could be extended in duration.
