🔗 Share this article

Amid the immense confusion regarding the United States attacks on Venezuela, the apprehension of President Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “run” the country and “take back the oil”, one thing is clear – this establishes a deeply alarming precedent.

Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed

The United States possesses a dark record of meddling, military incursions, and control in Latin America, but the recent overnight operation marked its first major military attack on the continent of South America. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Mr Trump declared.

The choice to militarily strike another independent nation and abduct its leader – just a short time after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – has still wider repercussions. This ought to concern everyone.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has indicated that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and brushed aside rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other factions of the decapitated regime are even more hardline.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who was elected promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is turning it into a renegade nation.

He believes that the United States' strength allows it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: witness the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He asserts that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this most recent venture “won’t cost us a penny”.

A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came without UN resolutions of any kind or congressional approval; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to obliterate them.

Disregard the message this sends to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will likely encourage more reckless actions.

The Thin Pretext and True Motives

No one buys the excuse that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is propelled by the promise of energy wealth as well as a desire to project strength, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the desire for glory as his support at home declines.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode emphasizes the UN's diminishing clout.

Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could still pressure him to redirect his gaze inward – but soaring healthcare premiums, financial discontent and ongoing controversies make foreign conflicts more appealing.

It has been less than 12 months into his time in office. Other governments may regret it if they stay silent now, with the question of which nation is next looming.